Hierarchical model-based risk assessment of polar ship−iceberg collision

Objectives In order to ensure the navigation safety of polar ships, ship-iceberg collision risk assessment is carried out in typical sea areas.

Methods Considering the scenario of a ship sailing in the Barents Sea, this study constructs a hierarchical model of ship-iceberg collision on the basis of identifying the risk influencing factors, then proposes an improved method for determining the factor weight coefficient. Combined with a fuzzy evaluation of factors, a comprehensive approach to calculating risks is developed. The collision risk is then calculated and assessed using the method in this paper in combination with expert opinions.

Results The risk of ship-iceberg collision in the Barents Sea is slightly higher than the medium level, and the three main factors behind the collision risk are the iceberg conditions, human error and the ship itself.

Conclusions When polar ships sail in the Barents Sea, attention should be paid to the potential danger posed by icebergs, and the necessary control measures should be taken to avoid collision.