基于动态贝叶斯网络的舰船动态贮备系统可靠性建模研究及算法实现

Reliability Modeling and Algorithm Implementation of Ship Dynamic Spare Systems Based on Dynamic Bayesian Networks

  • 摘要: 【目的】针对舰船动态贮备系统可靠性建模中条件概率表(CPT)构建效率低、准确性差的问题,本文提出一种基于贮备门结构与状态组合推演的CPT自动生成方法。【方法】以故障树为基础映射贝叶斯网络节点及依赖关系,通过贮备门输入状态推导节点概率分布,实现CPT的自动生成,并引入跨时间片依赖机制刻画备用单元的激活与修复过程,构建动态贝叶斯网络(DBN)模型。【结果】通过CPT自动生成结果表明所提方法计算耗时5.341秒,准确性和鲁棒性方面均优于传统人工赋值方式,能够有效解决复杂冗余配置下CPT构建工作量大、错误率高的问题。【结论】所提方法显著降低了动态贝叶斯网络建模难度,提升了可靠性分析的精度与效率,为舰船贮备系统的可靠性建模与定量评估提供了高效、规范的工具,具有良好的应用前景。

     

    Abstract: Objectives To address the low efficiency and poor accuracy in constructing Conditional Probability Tables (CPT) for the reliability modeling of shipborne dynamic spare systems, this paper proposes an automatic CPT generation method based on spare gate structures and state combination deduction. Methods A Bayesian Network (BN) is established by mapping nodes and dependencies from the fault tree. The probability distribution of nodes is automatically derived from the input states of spare gates, thereby enabling automated CPT generation. In addition, a cross-time-slice dependency mechanism is introduced to characterize the activation and repair processes of standby units, leading to the construction of a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) model. Results The results of CPT automatic generation show that the proposed method requires 5.341 seconds of computation and outperforms the traditional manual assignment approach in terms of accuracy and robustness. It effectively addresses the excessive workload and high error rates in CPT construction under complex redundancy configurations. Conclusions The proposed method significantly reduces the complexity of DBN modeling, improves the precision and efficiency of reliability analysis, and provides an efficient and standardized tool for the reliability modeling and quantitative evaluation of ship spare systems, offering promising application prospects.

     

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