王铭靖, 何小二, 蒋琛, 等. 基于主客观融合功能共振的舰船任务安全性分析[J]. 中国舰船研究. DOI: 10.19693/j.issn.1673-3185.03916.
引用本文: 王铭靖, 何小二, 蒋琛, 等. 基于主客观融合功能共振的舰船任务安全性分析[J]. 中国舰船研究. DOI: 10.19693/j.issn.1673-3185.03916.
WANG M J, HE X E, JIANG C, et al. Ship task safety analysis based on subjective and objective fusion functional resonance[J]. Chinese Journal of Ship Research(in Chinese). DOI: 10.19693/j.issn.1673-3185.03916.
Citation: WANG M J, HE X E, JIANG C, et al. Ship task safety analysis based on subjective and objective fusion functional resonance[J]. Chinese Journal of Ship Research(in Chinese). DOI: 10.19693/j.issn.1673-3185.03916.

基于主客观融合功能共振的舰船任务安全性分析

Ship task safety analysis based on subjective and objective fusion functional resonance

  • 摘要:
    目的 为了预防舰船在执行任务时发生碰撞、火灾、爆炸等事故,提出一种用于分析舰船任务的安全性并识别潜在的共振链路的主客观融合的功能共振分析方法。
    方法 首先,应用层次任务分析法确定任务的主要功能;其次,引入区间犹豫模糊加权平均算子和欧式距离来计算各功能的输出变异性;然后,采用FP-Growth算法挖掘事故案例中的上、下游功能之间的关联规则,并由提升度计算功能耦合变异性;最后,根据耦合变异性得分确定容易导致系统发生功能共振的关键功能和链路,建立相应的屏障措施进行重点监控。
    结果 以潜艇远海训练任务的安全性分析为例,研究结果显示存在2条产生功能共振的关键链路,产生的共振可能会引发事故。
    结论 研究成果可为舰船任务的安全保障提供重要的决策依据。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To prevent accidents such as collisions, fires, and explosions during ship operations, a Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) that integrates subjective and objective factors is proposed and employed to analyze the safety of ship missions and identify potential resonant links.
    Methods First, Hierarchical Task Analysis (HTA) is employed to determine the main functions of the task. Next, the output variability of each function is calculated using the Interval-Valued Hesitant Fuzzy Weighted Average (IVHFWA) operator and Euclidean distance. The FP-Growth algorithm is then employed to mine the association rules of upstream and downstream functions in accident cases, and the variability of function coupling is calculated based on the lift. Finally, based on the coupling variability scores, key functions and links that are prone to functional resonance in the system are identified, and corresponding barrier measures are established for focused monitoring.
    Results Taking the safety analysis of a submarine far-sea training mission as an example, the results indicate the existence of two critical links that generate functional resonance and may lead to accidents.
    Conclusion The results of this study can provide vital decision-making support to ensure the safety of ship missions.

     

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